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Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 4

· LONDON TIME · Signal Iduna Park · Referee: not provided

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

12 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

VSReal Betis

Real Betis

11 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

80.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 63.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 80.3%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.77 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1504 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

69.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 66.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 69.8%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.77 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1504 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

78.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 87

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 78.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.77 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1504 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

97.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 97.4%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.77 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1504 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

88.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 90.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 88.7%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.77 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1504 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

61.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 91.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 61.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.77 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1504 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

34.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 87

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

21.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 87

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

44.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.04 × 1.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1504 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 11 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.04 × 1.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 73.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Borussia Dortmund recorded 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats and averaged 2.10 goals scored per match. Real Betis's 1-match sample contains 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats, with 3.00 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Borussia Dortmund at home with 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 6 matches, averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.17 goals conceded. Away from home, Real Betis has 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 1 match, with 3.00 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of 10 matches (60%) of Borussia Dortmund's sample and 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Real Betis's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 7 of 10 matches (70%) and 1 of 1 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 11.80 per match for Borussia Dortmund and 20.00 for Real Betis. On target, the averages are 4.80 and 5.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Borussia Dortmund

5 matches
WLWLL
W
2
D
0
L
3
GF
6
GA
10

Last 5

Real Betis

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 10

Borussia Dortmund

10 matches
WLWLLDWLWW
W
5
D
1
L
4
GF
21
GA
19

Last 1

Real Betis

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 11

Borussia Dortmund

11 matches
WLWLLDWLWWD
W
5
D
2
L
4
GF
25
GA
23

Last 1

Real Betis

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Season

Borussia Dortmund

11 matches
WLWLLDWLWWD
W
5
D
2
L
4
GF
25
GA
23

Season

Real Betis

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Borussia Dortmund

2.10 · 10 matches

Real Betis

3.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Borussia Dortmund

1.90 · 10 matches

Real Betis

2.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Borussia Dortmund

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Borussia Dortmund

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Borussia Dortmund

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Borussia Dortmund

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Borussia Dortmund

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Real Betis

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Borussia Dortmund

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Real Betis

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Borussia Dortmund

4.80 · 10 matches

Real Betis

5.00 · 1 match

Average against

Borussia Dortmund

3.50 · 10 matches

Real Betis

5.00 · 1 match

Total average

Borussia Dortmund

8.30 · 10 matches

Real Betis

10.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

Borussia Dortmund

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

Borussia Dortmund

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

Borussia Dortmund

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

Borussia Dortmund

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Real Betis

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

Borussia Dortmund

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Real Betis

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Borussia Dortmund

1.80 · 10 matches

Real Betis

3.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Borussia Dortmund

1.80 · 10 matches

Real Betis

2.00 · 1 match

Total average

Borussia Dortmund

3.60 · 10 matches

Real Betis

5.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Borussia Dortmund

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

Borussia Dortmund

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Real Betis

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

Borussia Dortmund

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Real Betis

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Borussia Dortmund

12.00 · 10 matches

Real Betis

13.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Borussia Dortmund

12.20 · 10 matches

Real Betis

11.00 · 1 match

Total average

Borussia Dortmund

24.20 · 10 matches

Real Betis

24.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Borussia Dortmund

11.80 · 10 matches

Real Betis

20.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

Borussia Dortmund

4.80 · 10 matches

Real Betis

5.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

Borussia Dortmund

11.50 · 10 matches

Real Betis

6.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

Borussia Dortmund

5.10 · 10 matches

Real Betis

2.00 · 1 match

Average xG

Borussia Dortmund

1.65 · 9 matches

Real Betis

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Borussia Dortmund

1.36 · 9 matches

Real Betis

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Borussia Dortmund at home × Real Betis away

Borussia Dortmund at home

Borussia Dortmund

6 matches
WWLDWW
W
4
D
1
L
1
GF
15
GA
7

Real Betis away

Real Betis

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2
Average goals scored

Borussia Dortmund at home

2.50 · 6 matches

Real Betis away

3.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Borussia Dortmund at home

1.17 · 6 matches

Real Betis away

2.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Borussia Dortmund at home

100% · 6 of 6 matches

Real Betis away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Borussia Dortmund at home

100% · 6 of 6 matches

Real Betis away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Borussia Dortmund at home

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Real Betis away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Borussia Dortmund at home

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Real Betis away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Borussia Dortmund at home

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Real Betis away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Borussia Dortmund at home

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Real Betis away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Borussia Dortmund at home

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Real Betis away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total corner average

Borussia Dortmund at home

8.67 · 6 matches

Real Betis away

10.00 · 1 match

Over 8.5 corners

Borussia Dortmund at home

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Real Betis away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Total card average

Borussia Dortmund at home

3.00 · 6 matches

Real Betis away

5.00 · 1 match

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Borussia Dortmund

S. Guirassy

Forward

7.39

1 matches · 90 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

Fábio Silva

Forward

6.84

1 matches · 15 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 3 shots on target

M. Sabitzer

Midfielder

7.17

1 matches · 75 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

E. Nwaneri

Midfielder

6.81

1 matches · 55 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 6 shots on target

Kauã Prates

Centre-back

6.75

1 matches · 8 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

G. Kobel

Goalkeeper

7.26

1 matches · 90 min

5 saves · 0 goals conceded

A. Meyer

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Real Betis

Marc Bartra

Centre-back

8.80

1 matches · 90 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

T. Parrott

Forward

7.74

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 4 shots on target

Pablo Fornals

Midfielder

7.70

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

Isco

Midfielder

7.50

1 matches · 61 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 3 shots on target

Rodrigo Riquelme

Midfielder

6.63

1 matches · 81 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

Álvaro Vallés

Goalkeeper

6.37

1 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Diego Conde

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.