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Bodo/Glimt vs Lille: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 4

· LONDON TIME · Aspmyra Stadion · Referee: not provided

Bodo/Glimt

Bodo/Glimt

36 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -5

VSLille

Lille

22 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

75.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.30 × 1.49

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.30 × 1.49

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 78.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 75.9%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.30 × 1.49 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

67.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.30 × 1.49

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.30 × 1.49

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 71.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 67.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.30 × 1.49 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

79.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.30 × 1.49

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.30 × 1.49

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 91.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 79.4%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.30 × 1.49 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

97.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.30 × 1.49

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.30 × 1.49

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 97.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 97.6%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.30 × 1.49 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

88.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.30 × 1.49

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.30 × 1.49

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 96

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 88.9%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.30 × 1.49 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

68.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.30 × 1.49

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.30 × 1.49

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 84.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 68.1%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.30 × 1.49 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1525 × 1488 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

25.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.30 × 1.49

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.30 × 1.49

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 81.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

20.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.30 × 1.49

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.30 × 1.49

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 91.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

54.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.30 × 1.49

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1525 × 1488

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 19 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.30 × 1.49

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 73.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Bodo/Glimt recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 2.10 goals scored per match. Lille's 1-match sample contains 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat, with 2.00 goals scored per match.

Both teams scored in 6 of 10 matches (60%) of Bodo/Glimt's sample and 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Lille's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 10 of 10 matches (100%) and 1 of 1 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 10.60 per match for Bodo/Glimt and 6.00 for Lille. On target, the averages are 5.10 and 2.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Bodo/Glimt

5 matches
LWWDD
W
2
D
2
L
1
GF
11
GA
11

Last 5

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Last 10

Bodo/Glimt

10 matches
LWWDDLWWWW
W
6
D
2
L
2
GF
21
GA
17

Last 1

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Last 19

Bodo/Glimt

19 matches
LWWDDLWWWWWDLLLDDLW
W
8
D
5
L
6
GF
39
GA
33

Last 1

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Season

Bodo/Glimt

19 matches
LWWDDLWWWWWDLLLDDLW
W
8
D
5
L
6
GF
39
GA
33

Season

Lille

1 match
L
W
0
D
0
L
1
GF
2
GA
3

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Bodo/Glimt

2.10 · 10 matches

Lille

2.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Bodo/Glimt

1.70 · 10 matches

Lille

3.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Bodo/Glimt

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Bodo/Glimt

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Bodo/Glimt

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Bodo/Glimt

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Bodo/Glimt

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Bodo/Glimt

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Bodo/Glimt

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Bodo/Glimt

3.20 · 10 matches

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Average against

Bodo/Glimt

7.30 · 10 matches

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Total average

Bodo/Glimt

10.50 · 10 matches

Lille

10.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

Bodo/Glimt

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

Bodo/Glimt

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

Bodo/Glimt

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

Bodo/Glimt

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

Bodo/Glimt

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Bodo/Glimt

1.70 · 10 matches

Lille

2.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Bodo/Glimt

2.20 · 10 matches

Lille

3.00 · 1 match

Total average

Bodo/Glimt

3.90 · 10 matches

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

Bodo/Glimt

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Bodo/Glimt

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

Bodo/Glimt

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Lille

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

Bodo/Glimt

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Lille

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Bodo/Glimt

10.22 · 9 matches

Lille

11.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Bodo/Glimt

9.56 · 9 matches

Lille

13.00 · 1 match

Total average

Bodo/Glimt

19.78 · 9 matches

Lille

24.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Bodo/Glimt

10.60 · 10 matches

Lille

6.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

Bodo/Glimt

5.10 · 10 matches

Lille

2.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

Bodo/Glimt

20.60 · 10 matches

Lille

20.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

Bodo/Glimt

6.70 · 10 matches

Lille

5.00 · 1 match

Average xG

Bodo/Glimt

1.63 · 5 matches

Lille

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Bodo/Glimt

2.08 · 5 matches

Lille

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Bodo/Glimt at home × Lille away

Bodo/Glimt at home

Bodo/Glimt

9 matches
WDWWWLLDW
W
5
D
2
L
2
GF
23
GA
10

Lille away

Lille

0 matches

Insufficient data

Average goals scored

Bodo/Glimt at home

2.56 · 9 matches

Lille away

0.00 · 0 matches

Average goals conceded

Bodo/Glimt at home

1.11 · 9 matches

Lille away

0.00 · 0 matches

Over 0.5

Bodo/Glimt at home

100% · 9 of 9 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Over 1.5

Bodo/Glimt at home

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Over 2.5

Bodo/Glimt at home

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Over 3.5

Bodo/Glimt at home

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Both teams scored

Bodo/Glimt at home

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Clean sheet

Bodo/Glimt at home

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Failed to score

Bodo/Glimt at home

11% · 1 of 9 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Total corner average

Bodo/Glimt at home

8.89 · 9 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Over 8.5 corners

Bodo/Glimt at home

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Total card average

Bodo/Glimt at home

4.00 · 9 matches

Lille away

Insufficient data

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Bodo/Glimt

J. Hauge

Midfielder

7.66

4 matches · 293 min

1 goals · 3 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

A. Helmersen

Forward

6.83

4 matches · 301 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 6 of 11 shots on target

S. Auklend

Midfielder

6.81

4 matches · 339 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

O. Didrik Blomberg

Forward

7.48

4 matches · 376 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

P. Berg

Midfielder

7.10

4 matches · 390 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 11 shots on target

N. Haikin

Goalkeeper

6.73

4 matches · 345 min

15 saves · 3 goals conceded

J. Faye Lund

Goalkeeper

4.53

1 matches · 45 min

1 saves · 0 goals conceded

Lille

Alexsandro Ribeiro

Centre-back

7.59

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

A. Ueda

Forward

7.57

1 matches · 77 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

G. Perrin

Forward

6.47

1 matches · 61 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

E. Mbappé

Midfielder

5.25

1 matches · 56 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

Tiago Santos

Centre-back

6.59

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

B. Özer

Goalkeeper

5.80

1 matches · 90 min

2 saves · 0 goals conceded

O. Gill

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.