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Barcelona vs Aston Villa: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 4

· LONDON TIME · Camp Nou · Referee: not provided

Barcelona

Barcelona

3 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 4

VSAston Villa

Aston Villa

9 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

76.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.57 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.57 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 77.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 76.2%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.57 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1546 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

70.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.57 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.57 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 80.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 70.5%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.57 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1546 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

80.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.57 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.57 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 94.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 80.9%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.57 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1546 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

97.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.57 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.57 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 97.9%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.57 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1546 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

90.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.57 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.57 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 87

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 90.4%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.57 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1546 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

71.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.57 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.57 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 88.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 71.8%, low confidence and a sample of 1 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.57 × 1.51 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1546 × 1512 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

22.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.57 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.57 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 56.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

19.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.57 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.57 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 94.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

58.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
1 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.57 × 1.51

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1546 × 1512

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 13 / 1

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.57 × 1.51

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 62.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Barcelona recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 2.80 goals scored per match. Aston Villa's 1-match sample contains 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats, with 3.00 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Barcelona at home with 5 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 7 matches, averaging 3.57 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded. Away from home, Aston Villa has 1 win, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 1 match, with 3.00 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of 10 matches (80%) of Barcelona's sample and 1 of 1 matches (100%) of Aston Villa's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 8 of 10 matches (80%) and 1 of 1 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 17.90 per match for Barcelona and 21.00 for Aston Villa. On target, the averages are 7.90 and 9.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Barcelona

5 matches
WWLWD
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
15
GA
7

Last 5

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 10

Barcelona

10 matches
WWLWDWWWLD
W
6
D
2
L
2
GF
28
GA
17

Last 1

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Last 13

Barcelona

13 matches
WWLWDWWWLDWLW
W
8
D
2
L
3
GF
37
GA
21

Last 1

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Season

Barcelona

13 matches
WWLWDWWWLDWLW
W
8
D
2
L
3
GF
37
GA
21

Season

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Barcelona

2.80 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

3.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Barcelona

1.70 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

2.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Barcelona

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Barcelona

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Barcelona

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Barcelona

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Barcelona

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Barcelona

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Barcelona

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Barcelona

4.70 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

5.00 · 1 match

Average against

Barcelona

2.50 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

4.00 · 1 match

Total average

Barcelona

7.20 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

9.00 · 1 match

Over 7.5

Barcelona

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 8.5

Barcelona

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 9.5

Barcelona

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 10.5

Barcelona

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Over 11.5

Barcelona

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Barcelona

1.80 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

3.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Barcelona

1.70 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

3.00 · 1 match

Total average

Barcelona

3.50 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

6.00 · 1 match

Over 2.5

Barcelona

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Barcelona

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 4.5

Barcelona

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 5.5

Barcelona

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Aston Villa

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Barcelona

9.30 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

14.00 · 1 match

Opponent average

Barcelona

13.10 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

17.00 · 1 match

Total average

Barcelona

22.40 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

31.00 · 1 match

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Barcelona

17.90 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

21.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target

Barcelona

7.90 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

9.00 · 1 match

Average shots conceded

Barcelona

9.70 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

14.00 · 1 match

Average shots on target conceded

Barcelona

3.80 · 10 matches

Aston Villa

7.00 · 1 match

Average xG

Barcelona

2.04 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

Insufficient data

Average xG against

Barcelona

1.32 · 9 matches

Aston Villa

Insufficient data

Home vs away

Barcelona at home × Aston Villa away

Barcelona at home

Barcelona

7 matches
WLWWWWL
W
5
D
0
L
2
GF
25
GA
10

Aston Villa away

Aston Villa

1 match
W
W
1
D
0
L
0
GF
3
GA
2
Average goals scored

Barcelona at home

3.57 · 7 matches

Aston Villa away

3.00 · 1 match

Average goals conceded

Barcelona at home

1.43 · 7 matches

Aston Villa away

2.00 · 1 match

Over 0.5

Barcelona at home

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 1.5

Barcelona at home

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 2.5

Barcelona at home

86% · 6 of 7 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Over 3.5

Barcelona at home

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Both teams scored

Barcelona at home

86% · 6 of 7 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Clean sheet

Barcelona at home

0% · 0 of 7 matches

Aston Villa away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Failed to score

Barcelona at home

14% · 1 of 7 matches

Aston Villa away

0% · 0 of 1 matches

Total corner average

Barcelona at home

8.43 · 7 matches

Aston Villa away

9.00 · 1 match

Over 8.5 corners

Barcelona at home

43% · 3 of 7 matches

Aston Villa away

100% · 1 of 1 matches

Total card average

Barcelona at home

4.57 · 7 matches

Aston Villa away

6.00 · 1 match

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Barcelona

Lamine Yamal

Forward

9.60

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

Raphinha

Forward

9.87

1 matches · 71 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

Gabriel Jesus

Forward

7.83

1 matches · 7 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Pedri

Midfielder

7.70

1 matches · 63 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

K. Adeyemi

Forward

7.66

1 matches · 63 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Joan García

Goalkeeper

6.60

1 matches · 90 min

1 saves · 0 goals conceded

W. Szczęsny

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Aston Villa

Pau Torres

Centre-back

7.80

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

N. Jackson

Forward

8.20

1 matches · 81 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

J. McGinn

Midfielder

7.88

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

João Gomes

Midfielder

7.63

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

E. Buendía

Midfielder

7.49

1 matches · 68 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

Z. Suzuki

Goalkeeper

7.33

1 matches · 90 min

5 saves · 0 goals conceded

M. Bizot

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.