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Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 4

· LONDON TIME · Metropolitano Stadium · Referee: not provided

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

26 · 0 pts · 1 P · 0 W · 0 D · 1 L · GD -1

VSBayern München

Bayern München

2 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 5

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

94.4%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.63 × 2.82

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.63 × 2.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 94.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 94.4%, medium confidence and a sample of 15 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.63 × 2.82 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1507 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

73.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.63 × 2.82

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.63 × 2.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 73.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 73.5%, medium confidence and a sample of 15 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.63 × 2.82 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1507 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

82.1%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.63 × 2.82

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.63 × 2.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 95.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 82.1%, medium confidence and a sample of 15 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.63 × 2.82 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1507 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

98.0%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.63 × 2.82

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.63 × 2.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 95.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 98.0%, medium confidence and a sample of 15 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.63 × 2.82 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1507 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

92.5%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.63 × 2.82

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.63 × 2.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 85.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 92.5%, medium confidence and a sample of 15 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.63 × 2.82 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1507 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

49.6%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.63 × 2.82

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.63 × 2.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 82.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 49.6%, medium confidence and a sample of 15 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.63 × 2.82 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1507 × 1589 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

60.8%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.63 × 2.82

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.63 × 2.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

17.9%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.63 × 2.82

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.63 × 2.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 95.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

21.3%

medium
View full analysis
Sample
15 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.63 × 2.82

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1507 × 1589

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 17 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.63 × 2.82

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Atletico Madrid recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats and averaged 2.00 goals scored per match. Bayern München's 10-match sample contains 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 3.30 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Atletico Madrid at home with 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 8 matches, averaging 2.75 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded. Away from home, Bayern München has 5 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in 7 matches, with 3.14 goals scored and 1.86 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 8 of 10 matches (80%) of Atletico Madrid's sample and 8 of 10 matches (80%) of Bayern München's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 7 of 10 matches (70%) and 8 of 10 matches (80%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 13.90 per match for Atletico Madrid and 19.80 for Bayern München. On target, the averages are 4.80 and 8.50, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Atletico Madrid

5 matches
LLDLW
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
5
GA
6

Last 5

Bayern München

5 matches
WDLWW
W
3
D
1
L
1
GF
16
GA
10

Last 10

Atletico Madrid

10 matches
LLDLWLWWDL
W
3
D
2
L
5
GF
20
GA
17

Last 10

Bayern München

10 matches
WDLWWWWWWW
W
8
D
1
L
1
GF
33
GA
14

Last 17

Atletico Madrid

17 matches
LLDLWLWWDLDWWWLWL
W
7
D
3
L
7
GF
36
GA
30

Last 15

Bayern München

15 matches
WDLWWWWWWWLWWWW
W
12
D
1
L
2
GF
48
GA
20

Season

Atletico Madrid

17 matches
LLDLWLWWDLDWWWLWL
W
7
D
3
L
7
GF
36
GA
30

Season

Bayern München

15 matches
WDLWWWWWWWLWWWW
W
12
D
1
L
2
GF
48
GA
20

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Atletico Madrid

2.00 · 10 matches

Bayern München

3.30 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

Atletico Madrid

1.70 · 10 matches

Bayern München

1.40 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

Atletico Madrid

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Bayern München

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

Atletico Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Bayern München

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

Atletico Madrid

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Bayern München

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

Atletico Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Bayern München

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

Atletico Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Bayern München

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

Atletico Madrid

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Bayern München

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Failed to score

Atletico Madrid

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Bayern München

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Atletico Madrid

4.70 · 10 matches

Bayern München

5.90 · 10 matches

Average against

Atletico Madrid

4.50 · 10 matches

Bayern München

3.70 · 10 matches

Total average

Atletico Madrid

9.20 · 10 matches

Bayern München

9.60 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

Atletico Madrid

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Bayern München

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

Atletico Madrid

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Bayern München

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

Atletico Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Bayern München

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

Atletico Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Bayern München

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

Atletico Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Bayern München

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Atletico Madrid

1.50 · 10 matches

Bayern München

2.11 · 9 matches

Opponent average

Atletico Madrid

2.10 · 10 matches

Bayern München

2.89 · 9 matches

Total average

Atletico Madrid

3.60 · 10 matches

Bayern München

5.00 · 9 matches

Over 2.5

Atletico Madrid

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Bayern München

89% · 8 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

Atletico Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Bayern München

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Over 4.5

Atletico Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Bayern München

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Over 5.5

Atletico Madrid

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Bayern München

33% · 3 of 9 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Atletico Madrid

10.70 · 10 matches

Bayern München

9.70 · 10 matches

Opponent average

Atletico Madrid

9.10 · 10 matches

Bayern München

9.50 · 10 matches

Total average

Atletico Madrid

19.80 · 10 matches

Bayern München

19.20 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Atletico Madrid

13.90 · 10 matches

Bayern München

19.80 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

Atletico Madrid

4.80 · 10 matches

Bayern München

8.50 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

Atletico Madrid

13.90 · 10 matches

Bayern München

10.90 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Atletico Madrid

6.30 · 10 matches

Bayern München

4.50 · 10 matches

Average xG

Atletico Madrid

1.80 · 9 matches

Bayern München

2.78 · 9 matches

Average xG against

Atletico Madrid

1.80 · 9 matches

Bayern München

1.47 · 9 matches

Home vs away

Atletico Madrid at home × Bayern München away

Atletico Madrid at home

Atletico Madrid

8 matches
DLWWLWWW
W
5
D
1
L
2
GF
22
GA
11

Bayern München away

Bayern München

7 matches
LWWWLWW
W
5
D
0
L
2
GF
22
GA
13
Average goals scored

Atletico Madrid at home

2.75 · 8 matches

Bayern München away

3.14 · 7 matches

Average goals conceded

Atletico Madrid at home

1.38 · 8 matches

Bayern München away

1.86 · 7 matches

Over 0.5

Atletico Madrid at home

100% · 8 of 8 matches

Bayern München away

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Over 1.5

Atletico Madrid at home

100% · 8 of 8 matches

Bayern München away

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Over 2.5

Atletico Madrid at home

88% · 7 of 8 matches

Bayern München away

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Over 3.5

Atletico Madrid at home

50% · 4 of 8 matches

Bayern München away

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Both teams scored

Atletico Madrid at home

100% · 8 of 8 matches

Bayern München away

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Clean sheet

Atletico Madrid at home

0% · 0 of 8 matches

Bayern München away

0% · 0 of 7 matches

Failed to score

Atletico Madrid at home

0% · 0 of 8 matches

Bayern München away

0% · 0 of 7 matches

Total corner average

Atletico Madrid at home

8.88 · 8 matches

Bayern München away

10.14 · 7 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Atletico Madrid at home

50% · 4 of 8 matches

Bayern München away

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Total card average

Atletico Madrid at home

2.75 · 8 matches

Bayern München away

4.29 · 7 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Atletico Madrid

J. Álvarez

Forward

7.51

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 3 shots on target

Marcos Llorente

Midfielder

7.44

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

C. Romero

Centre-back

6.95

1 matches · 77 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Pablo Barrios

Midfielder

6.81

1 matches · 77 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

Álex Grimaldo

Centre-back

6.72

1 matches · 31 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

J. Oblak

Goalkeeper

6.09

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

J. Musso

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Bayern München

M. Olise

Midfielder

9.66

1 matches · 90 min

2 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

H. Kane

Forward

8.51

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 2 of 6 shots on target

A. Davies

Centre-back

7.90

1 matches · 80 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

J. Musiala

Midfielder

7.86

1 matches · 65 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

L. Karl

Midfielder

6.71

1 matches · 10 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

M. Neuer

Goalkeeper

6.83

1 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

S. Ulreich

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.