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AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid: statistics and analysis

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Matchday 4

· LONDON TIME · Allwyn Arena · Referee: not provided

AEK Athens FC

AEK Athens FC

16 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

VSReal Madrid

Real Madrid

14 · 3 pts · 1 P · 1 W · 0 D · 0 L · GD 1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

75.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.65 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1520 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.65 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 49.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 75.1%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.65 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1520 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Both teams to score

56.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.65 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1520 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.65 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 80.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Both teams to score has a model probability of 56.2%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.65 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1520 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

75.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.65 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1520 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.65 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 72.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 75.2%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.65 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1520 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

94.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.65 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1520 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.65 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 93.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 94.0%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.65 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1520 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 1.5 goals

77.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.65 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1520 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.65 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 87.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 1.5 goals has a model probability of 77.7%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.65 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1520 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

47.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.65 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1520 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.65 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 71.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 47.1%, low confidence and a sample of 3 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.08 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.65 × 1.25 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1520 × 1543 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

29.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.65 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1520 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.65 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 92.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

24.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.65 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1520 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.65 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 72.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

46.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
3 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.08

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.65 × 1.25

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1520 × 1543

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 61.1

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 3 / 15

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.65 × 1.25

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 64

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 3 recent matches, AEK Athens FC recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats and averaged 1.67 goals scored per match. Real Madrid's 10-match sample contains 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats, with 2.30 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows AEK Athens FC at home with 2 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in 2 matches, averaging 2.50 goals scored and 0.00 goals conceded. Away from home, Real Madrid has 4 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in 7 matches, with 2.43 goals scored and 1.86 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 0 of 3 matches (0%) of AEK Athens FC's sample and 8 of 10 matches (80%) of Real Madrid's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 of 3 matches (33%) and 9 of 10 matches (90%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 16.00 per match for AEK Athens FC and 16.10 for Real Madrid. On target, the averages are 4.00 and 5.90, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

AEK Athens FC

3 matches
WWD
W
2
D
1
L
0
GF
5
GA
0

Last 5

Real Madrid

5 matches
WLLWW
W
3
D
0
L
2
GF
11
GA
8

Last 3

AEK Athens FC

3 matches
WWD
W
2
D
1
L
0
GF
5
GA
0

Last 10

Real Madrid

10 matches
WLLWWWWLWL
W
6
D
0
L
4
GF
23
GA
16

Last 3

AEK Athens FC

3 matches
WWD
W
2
D
1
L
0
GF
5
GA
0

Last 15

Real Madrid

15 matches
WLLWWWWLWLWLWWW
W
10
D
0
L
5
GF
35
GA
21

Season

AEK Athens FC

3 matches
WWD
W
2
D
1
L
0
GF
5
GA
0

Season

Real Madrid

15 matches
WLLWWWWLWLWLWWW
W
10
D
0
L
5
GF
35
GA
21

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

AEK Athens FC

1.67 · 3 matches

Real Madrid

2.30 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

AEK Athens FC

0.00 · 3 matches

Real Madrid

1.60 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

AEK Athens FC

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Real Madrid

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

AEK Athens FC

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

AEK Athens FC

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

AEK Athens FC

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Real Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

AEK Athens FC

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

AEK Athens FC

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Real Madrid

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Failed to score

AEK Athens FC

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Real Madrid

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

AEK Athens FC

5.00 · 3 matches

Real Madrid

4.90 · 10 matches

Average against

AEK Athens FC

2.33 · 3 matches

Real Madrid

7.50 · 10 matches

Total average

AEK Athens FC

7.33 · 3 matches

Real Madrid

12.40 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

AEK Athens FC

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

AEK Athens FC

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Real Madrid

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

AEK Athens FC

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

AEK Athens FC

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

AEK Athens FC

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Real Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

AEK Athens FC

2.00 · 2 matches

Real Madrid

2.90 · 10 matches

Opponent average

AEK Athens FC

1.00 · 2 matches

Real Madrid

2.20 · 10 matches

Total average

AEK Athens FC

3.00 · 2 matches

Real Madrid

5.10 · 10 matches

Over 2.5

AEK Athens FC

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

AEK Athens FC

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Real Madrid

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 4.5

AEK Athens FC

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Real Madrid

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Over 5.5

AEK Athens FC

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Real Madrid

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

AEK Athens FC

13.33 · 3 matches

Real Madrid

11.70 · 10 matches

Opponent average

AEK Athens FC

10.67 · 3 matches

Real Madrid

10.60 · 10 matches

Total average

AEK Athens FC

24.00 · 3 matches

Real Madrid

22.30 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

AEK Athens FC

16.00 · 3 matches

Real Madrid

16.10 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

AEK Athens FC

4.00 · 3 matches

Real Madrid

5.90 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

AEK Athens FC

12.33 · 3 matches

Real Madrid

16.80 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

AEK Athens FC

3.00 · 3 matches

Real Madrid

6.90 · 10 matches

Average xG

AEK Athens FC

Insufficient data

Real Madrid

2.08 · 9 matches

Average xG against

AEK Athens FC

Insufficient data

Real Madrid

1.87 · 9 matches

Home vs away

AEK Athens FC at home × Real Madrid away

AEK Athens FC at home

AEK Athens FC

2 matches
WW
W
2
D
0
L
0
GF
5
GA
0

Real Madrid away

Real Madrid

7 matches
LWWLWLW
W
4
D
0
L
3
GF
17
GA
13
Average goals scored

AEK Athens FC at home

2.50 · 2 matches

Real Madrid away

2.43 · 7 matches

Average goals conceded

AEK Athens FC at home

0.00 · 2 matches

Real Madrid away

1.86 · 7 matches

Over 0.5

AEK Athens FC at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Real Madrid away

100% · 7 of 7 matches

Over 1.5

AEK Athens FC at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Real Madrid away

71% · 5 of 7 matches

Over 2.5

AEK Athens FC at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Real Madrid away

71% · 5 of 7 matches

Over 3.5

AEK Athens FC at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Real Madrid away

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Both teams scored

AEK Athens FC at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Real Madrid away

57% · 4 of 7 matches

Clean sheet

AEK Athens FC at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Real Madrid away

29% · 2 of 7 matches

Failed to score

AEK Athens FC at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Real Madrid away

14% · 1 of 7 matches

Total corner average

AEK Athens FC at home

9.50 · 2 matches

Real Madrid away

9.86 · 7 matches

Over 8.5 corners

AEK Athens FC at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Real Madrid away

71% · 5 of 7 matches

Total card average

AEK Athens FC at home

3.00 · 2 matches

Real Madrid away

5.43 · 7 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

AEK Athens FC

R. Marin

Midfielder

7.50

3 matches · 266 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 8 shots on target

B. Varga

Forward

7.47

3 matches · 204 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 7 shots on target

Filipe Relvas

Centre-back

7.81

3 matches · 270 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

L. Rota

Centre-back

7.58

3 matches · 270 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

L. Majer

Midfielder

7.37

3 matches · 227 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

T. Strakosha

Goalkeeper

7.40

2 matches · 180 min

6 saves · 0 goals conceded

A. Brignoli

Goalkeeper

7.34

1 matches · 90 min

3 saves · 0 goals conceded

Real Madrid

F. Valverde

Midfielder

8.20

1 matches · 90 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

Kylian Mbappé

Forward

8.20

1 matches · 89 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 4 shots on target

Brahim Díaz

Midfielder

7.70

1 matches · 79 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

Marc Cucurella

Centre-back

7.13

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

J. Bellingham

Midfielder

6.87

1 matches · 90 min

0 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

T. Courtois

Goalkeeper

7.90

1 matches · 90 min

7 saves · 0 goals conceded

A. Lunin

Goalkeeper

0.00

1 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.