RadarOnze

SV Elversberg vs Werder Bremen: statistics and analysis

BUNDESLIGA 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 34

· LONDON TIME · Waldstadion Kaiserlinde · Referee: not provided

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

68.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.29

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.95 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1447

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.95 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 89.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 68.9%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.29 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.95 × 1.19 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1514 × 1447 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

77.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.29

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.95 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1447

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.95 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 94.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 77.4%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.29 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.95 × 1.19 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1514 × 1447 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

76.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.29

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.95 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1447

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.95 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 75.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 76.3%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.29 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.95 × 1.19 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1514 × 1447 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

46.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.29

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.95 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1447

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.95 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 70.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 46.3%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.29 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.95 × 1.19 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1514 × 1447 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

95.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.29

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.95 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1447

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.95 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 98.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 95.5%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.29 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.95 × 1.19 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1514 × 1447 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

56.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.29

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.95 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1447

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.95 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 78.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 56.4%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.29 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.95 × 1.19 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1514 × 1447 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

91.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 27.05

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 15.07 × 12.67

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1447

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 27.74

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 90.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 91.3%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — shots: 27.05 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 15.07 × 12.67 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1514 × 1447 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

23.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.29

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.95 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1447

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.95 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 75.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

22.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.29

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.95 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1447

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.95 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 94.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

53.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.29

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.95 × 1.19

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1447

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.8

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.95 × 1.19

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 70.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 4 recent matches, SV Elversberg recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat and averaged 2.00 goals scored per match. Werder Bremen's 10-match sample contains 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, with 1.40 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows SV Elversberg at home with 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 2 matches, averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded. Away from home, Werder Bremen has 3 wins, 5 draws and 11 defeats in 19 matches, with 1.05 goals scored and 1.79 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 4 matches (75%) of SV Elversberg's sample and 8 of 10 matches (80%) of Werder Bremen's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 4 matches (75%) and 6 of 10 matches (60%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 10.25 per match for SV Elversberg and 12.30 for Werder Bremen. On target, the averages are 4.50 and 5.00, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Last 5

Werder Bremen

5 matches
WDWLL
W
2
D
1
L
2
GF
8
GA
10

Last 4

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Last 10

Werder Bremen

10 matches
WDWLLLLDWL
W
3
D
2
L
5
GF
14
GA
19

Last 4

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Last 20

Werder Bremen

20 matches
WDWLLLLDWLLWLWWLLLDL
W
6
D
3
L
11
GF
24
GA
33

Season

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Season

Werder Bremen

38 matches
WDWLLLLDWLLWLWWLLLDLLDLDLLDLWDWDWLLWDL
W
10
D
9
L
19
GF
45
GA
68

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

SV Elversberg

2.00 · 4 matches

Werder Bremen

1.40 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

SV Elversberg

1.75 · 4 matches

Werder Bremen

1.90 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Werder Bremen

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Werder Bremen

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Werder Bremen

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Werder Bremen

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Werder Bremen

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

SV Elversberg

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Werder Bremen

0% · 0 of 10 matches

Failed to score

SV Elversberg

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Werder Bremen

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

SV Elversberg

3.75 · 4 matches

Werder Bremen

4.30 · 10 matches

Average against

SV Elversberg

7.25 · 4 matches

Werder Bremen

6.30 · 10 matches

Total average

SV Elversberg

11.00 · 4 matches

Werder Bremen

10.60 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Werder Bremen

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Werder Bremen

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Werder Bremen

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Werder Bremen

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Werder Bremen

30% · 3 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

SV Elversberg

2.00 · 4 matches

Werder Bremen

1.89 · 9 matches

Opponent average

SV Elversberg

1.50 · 4 matches

Werder Bremen

1.56 · 9 matches

Total average

SV Elversberg

3.50 · 4 matches

Werder Bremen

3.44 · 9 matches

Over 2.5

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Werder Bremen

56% · 5 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Werder Bremen

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Over 4.5

SV Elversberg

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Werder Bremen

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Over 5.5

SV Elversberg

0% · 0 of 4 matches

Werder Bremen

22% · 2 of 9 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

SV Elversberg

11.50 · 4 matches

Werder Bremen

10.40 · 10 matches

Opponent average

SV Elversberg

12.75 · 4 matches

Werder Bremen

9.30 · 10 matches

Total average

SV Elversberg

24.25 · 4 matches

Werder Bremen

19.70 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

SV Elversberg

10.25 · 4 matches

Werder Bremen

12.30 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

SV Elversberg

4.50 · 4 matches

Werder Bremen

5.00 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

SV Elversberg

21.75 · 4 matches

Werder Bremen

16.10 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

SV Elversberg

4.25 · 4 matches

Werder Bremen

5.50 · 10 matches

Average xG

SV Elversberg

1.79 · 2 matches

Werder Bremen

1.01 · 8 matches

Average xG against

SV Elversberg

2.12 · 2 matches

Werder Bremen

2.05 · 8 matches

Home vs away

SV Elversberg at home × Werder Bremen away

SV Elversberg at home

SV Elversberg

2 matches
LW
W
1
D
0
L
1
GF
4
GA
4

Werder Bremen away

Werder Bremen

19 matches
DLLDLWWLLLLDLLDDLWL
W
3
D
5
L
11
GF
20
GA
34
Average goals scored

SV Elversberg at home

2.00 · 2 matches

Werder Bremen away

1.05 · 19 matches

Average goals conceded

SV Elversberg at home

2.00 · 2 matches

Werder Bremen away

1.79 · 19 matches

Over 0.5

SV Elversberg at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Werder Bremen away

95% · 18 of 19 matches

Over 1.5

SV Elversberg at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Werder Bremen away

74% · 14 of 19 matches

Over 2.5

SV Elversberg at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Werder Bremen away

53% · 10 of 19 matches

Over 3.5

SV Elversberg at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Werder Bremen away

42% · 8 of 19 matches

Both teams scored

SV Elversberg at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Werder Bremen away

53% · 10 of 19 matches

Clean sheet

SV Elversberg at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Werder Bremen away

16% · 3 of 19 matches

Failed to score

SV Elversberg at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Werder Bremen away

37% · 7 of 19 matches

Total corner average

SV Elversberg at home

9.50 · 2 matches

Werder Bremen away

11.00 · 19 matches

Over 8.5 corners

SV Elversberg at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Werder Bremen away

68% · 13 of 19 matches

Total card average

SV Elversberg at home

3.50 · 2 matches

Werder Bremen away

3.95 · 19 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

SV Elversberg

M. Krattenmacher

Midfielder

7.21

4 matches · 141 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 8 shots on target

D. Mokwa

Forward

6.93

4 matches · 312 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

L. Petkov

Midfielder

6.83

4 matches · 353 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

William Cole Campbell

Midfielder

6.70

4 matches · 261 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

L. Pinckert

Centre-back

6.61

4 matches · 360 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

N. Kristof

Goalkeeper

7.21

4 matches · 360 min

9 saves · 5 goals conceded

T. Boss

Goalkeeper

0.00

2 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Werder Bremen

M. Grüll

Midfielder

7.66

4 matches · 355 min

2 goals · 3 assists · 3 of 9 shots on target

N. Füllkrug

Forward

7.50

4 matches · 306 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 7 of 10 shots on target

Chuky San José

Forward

6.95

4 matches · 353 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 4 of 7 shots on target

E. Dinkçi

Forward

6.51

4 matches · 227 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 5 shots on target

M. Weiser

Centre-back

6.43

2 matches · 29 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 2 shots on target

K. Hein

Goalkeeper

7.03

4 matches · 360 min

11 saves · 5 goals conceded

A. Schlager

Goalkeeper

0.00

2 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.