RadarOnze

SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayern München: statistics and analysis

BUNDESLIGA 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 29

· LONDON TIME · Home Deluxe Arena · Referee: not provided

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

94.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.31

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.96 × 2.80

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1684

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.96 × 2.80

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 95.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 94.3%, low confidence and a sample of 6 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.31 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.96 × 2.80 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1491 × 1684 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

84.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.31

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.96 × 2.80

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1684

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.96 × 2.80

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 76.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 84.6%, low confidence and a sample of 6 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.31 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.96 × 2.80 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1491 × 1684 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

27.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.31

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.96 × 2.80

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1684

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.96 × 2.80

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 27.0%, low confidence and a sample of 6 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.31 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.96 × 2.80 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1491 × 1684 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

88.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.31

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.96 × 2.80

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1684

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.96 × 2.80

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 88.4%, low confidence and a sample of 6 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.31 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.96 × 2.80 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1491 × 1684 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.31

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.96 × 2.80

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1684

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.96 × 2.80

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 88.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.8%, low confidence and a sample of 6 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.31 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.96 × 2.80 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1491 × 1684 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

24.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.31

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.96 × 2.80

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1684

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.96 × 2.80

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 97.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 24.8%, low confidence and a sample of 6 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.31 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 0.96 × 2.80 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1491 × 1684 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

95.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 27.17

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 10.24 × 20.59

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1684

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 30.83

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 79.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 95.9%, low confidence and a sample of 6 matches per team.

League average — shots: 27.17 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 10.24 × 20.59 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1491 × 1684 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

73.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.31

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.96 × 2.80

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1684

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.96 × 2.80

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

15.4%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.31

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.96 × 2.80

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1684

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.96 × 2.80

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 76.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

11.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.31

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 0.96 × 2.80

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1684

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 63.9

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 0.96 × 2.80

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 6 recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 recorded 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 0.67 goals scored per match. Bayern München's 10-match sample contains 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats, with 3.60 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows SC Paderborn 07 at home with 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 3 matches, averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded. Away from home, Bayern München has 15 wins, 4 draws and 0 defeats in 19 matches, with 2.95 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of 6 matches (33%) of SC Paderborn 07's sample and 6 of 10 matches (60%) of Bayern München's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 6 matches (33%) and 8 of 10 matches (80%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 14.67 per match for SC Paderborn 07 and 20.40 for Bayern München. On target, the averages are 3.17 and 8.10, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

SC Paderborn 07

5 matches
WLLDD
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
6

Last 5

Bayern München

5 matches
WWDWW
W
4
D
1
L
0
GF
19
GA
3

Last 6

SC Paderborn 07

6 matches
WLLDDD
W
1
D
3
L
2
GF
4
GA
6

Last 10

Bayern München

10 matches
WWDWWWDWWW
W
8
D
2
L
0
GF
36
GA
11

Last 6

SC Paderborn 07

6 matches
WLLDDD
W
1
D
3
L
2
GF
4
GA
6

Last 20

Bayern München

20 matches
WWDWWWDWWWWWDWWWWWDL
W
15
D
4
L
1
GF
65
GA
24

Season

SC Paderborn 07

6 matches
WLLDDD
W
1
D
3
L
2
GF
4
GA
6

Season

Bayern München

38 matches
WWDWWWDWWWWWDWWWWWDLWWWWDWWWDWWWWWWWWW
W
31
D
6
L
1
GF
136
GA
38

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

SC Paderborn 07

0.67 · 6 matches

Bayern München

3.60 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

SC Paderborn 07

1.00 · 6 matches

Bayern München

1.10 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

SC Paderborn 07

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Bayern München

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

SC Paderborn 07

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Bayern München

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

SC Paderborn 07

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Bayern München

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

SC Paderborn 07

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Bayern München

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

SC Paderborn 07

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Bayern München

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

SC Paderborn 07

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Bayern München

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Failed to score

SC Paderborn 07

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Bayern München

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

SC Paderborn 07

6.00 · 6 matches

Bayern München

7.80 · 10 matches

Average against

SC Paderborn 07

5.50 · 6 matches

Bayern München

3.40 · 10 matches

Total average

SC Paderborn 07

11.50 · 6 matches

Bayern München

11.20 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

SC Paderborn 07

83% · 5 of 6 matches

Bayern München

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

SC Paderborn 07

83% · 5 of 6 matches

Bayern München

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

SC Paderborn 07

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Bayern München

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

SC Paderborn 07

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Bayern München

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

SC Paderborn 07

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Bayern München

40% · 4 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

SC Paderborn 07

2.33 · 6 matches

Bayern München

1.33 · 9 matches

Opponent average

SC Paderborn 07

2.33 · 6 matches

Bayern München

1.78 · 9 matches

Total average

SC Paderborn 07

4.67 · 6 matches

Bayern München

3.11 · 9 matches

Over 2.5

SC Paderborn 07

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Bayern München

67% · 6 of 9 matches

Over 3.5

SC Paderborn 07

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Bayern München

44% · 4 of 9 matches

Over 4.5

SC Paderborn 07

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Bayern München

11% · 1 of 9 matches

Over 5.5

SC Paderborn 07

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Bayern München

0% · 0 of 9 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

SC Paderborn 07

11.17 · 6 matches

Bayern München

8.20 · 10 matches

Opponent average

SC Paderborn 07

10.67 · 6 matches

Bayern München

8.50 · 10 matches

Total average

SC Paderborn 07

21.83 · 6 matches

Bayern München

16.70 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

SC Paderborn 07

14.67 · 6 matches

Bayern München

20.40 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

SC Paderborn 07

3.17 · 6 matches

Bayern München

8.10 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

SC Paderborn 07

16.33 · 6 matches

Bayern München

9.90 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

SC Paderborn 07

4.67 · 6 matches

Bayern München

3.80 · 10 matches

Average xG

SC Paderborn 07

0.75 · 2 matches

Bayern München

2.98 · 8 matches

Average xG against

SC Paderborn 07

1.23 · 2 matches

Bayern München

1.52 · 8 matches

Home vs away

SC Paderborn 07 at home × Bayern München away

SC Paderborn 07 at home

SC Paderborn 07

3 matches
WLD
W
1
D
1
L
1
GF
4
GA
3

Bayern München away

Bayern München

19 matches
WDWWWWDWWDWWWWDWWWW
W
15
D
4
L
0
GF
56
GA
18
Average goals scored

SC Paderborn 07 at home

1.33 · 3 matches

Bayern München away

2.95 · 19 matches

Average goals conceded

SC Paderborn 07 at home

1.00 · 3 matches

Bayern München away

0.95 · 19 matches

Over 0.5

SC Paderborn 07 at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Bayern München away

95% · 18 of 19 matches

Over 1.5

SC Paderborn 07 at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Bayern München away

89% · 17 of 19 matches

Over 2.5

SC Paderborn 07 at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Bayern München away

84% · 16 of 19 matches

Over 3.5

SC Paderborn 07 at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Bayern München away

63% · 12 of 19 matches

Both teams scored

SC Paderborn 07 at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Bayern München away

58% · 11 of 19 matches

Clean sheet

SC Paderborn 07 at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Bayern München away

42% · 8 of 19 matches

Failed to score

SC Paderborn 07 at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Bayern München away

5% · 1 of 19 matches

Total corner average

SC Paderborn 07 at home

13.67 · 3 matches

Bayern München away

9.26 · 19 matches

Over 8.5 corners

SC Paderborn 07 at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Bayern München away

58% · 11 of 19 matches

Total card average

SC Paderborn 07 at home

5.67 · 3 matches

Bayern München away

4.35 · 17 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

SC Paderborn 07

S. Castañeda

Midfielder

7.10

4 matches · 360 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

L. Curda

Midfielder

7.01

4 matches · 337 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

S. Marino

Forward

6.83

4 matches · 215 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

S. Tigges

Forward

6.79

4 matches · 136 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 7 shots on target

Jonah Benedict Sticker

Midfielder

5.11

4 matches · 50 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

N. Noll

Goalkeeper

7.43

4 matches · 360 min

14 saves · 1 goals conceded

M. Schubert

Goalkeeper

0.00

2 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Bayern München

M. Olise

Midfielder

7.94

4 matches · 303 min

4 goals · 1 assists · 9 of 16 shots on target

H. Kane

Forward

7.68

4 matches · 296 min

3 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

I. Saibari

Midfielder

7.34

4 matches · 178 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 3 of 8 shots on target

J. Kimmich

Midfielder

7.86

4 matches · 295 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

A. Davies

Centre-back

7.63

4 matches · 272 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

M. Neuer

Goalkeeper

5.54

4 matches · 270 min

6 saves · 1 goals conceded

J. Urbig

Goalkeeper

3.35

2 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.