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SV Elversberg vs Union Berlin: statistics and analysis

BUNDESLIGA 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 22

· LONDON TIME · Waldstadion Kaiserlinde · Referee: not provided

SV Elversberg

SV Elversberg

7 · 7 pts · 4 P · 2 W · 1 D · 1 L · GD 1

VSUnion Berlin

Union Berlin

17 · 1 pts · 4 P · 0 W · 1 D · 3 L · GD -13

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

69.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.31 × 1.17

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1441

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.31 × 1.17

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 92

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 69.5%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.33 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.31 × 1.17 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1514 × 1441 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

80.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.31 × 1.17

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1441

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.31 × 1.17

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 81.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 80.1%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.33 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.31 × 1.17 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1514 × 1441 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

81.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.31 × 1.17

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1441

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.31 × 1.17

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 57.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 81.1%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.33 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.31 × 1.17 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1514 × 1441 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

38.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.31 × 1.17

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1441

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.31 × 1.17

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 39.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 38.8%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.33 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.31 × 1.17 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1514 × 1441 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.31 × 1.17

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1441

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.31 × 1.17

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 90.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.2%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.33 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.31 × 1.17 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1514 × 1441 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

63.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.31 × 1.17

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1441

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.31 × 1.17

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 53.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 63.7%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.33 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 2.31 × 1.17 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1514 × 1441 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

90.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 27.34

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 14.63 × 12.71

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1441

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 27.34

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 95.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 90.6%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — shots: 27.34 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 14.63 × 12.71 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1514 × 1441 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

18.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.31 × 1.17

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1441

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.31 × 1.17

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 57.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

19.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.31 × 1.17

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1441

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.31 × 1.17

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 81.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

61.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 2.31 × 1.17

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1514 × 1441

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 4 / 38

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 2.31 × 1.17

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 39.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 4 recent matches, SV Elversberg recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat and averaged 2.00 goals scored per match. Union Berlin's 10-match sample contains 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats, with 1.60 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows SV Elversberg at home with 1 win, 0 draws and 1 defeat in 2 matches, averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded. Away from home, Union Berlin has 5 wins, 2 draws and 12 defeats in 19 matches, with 0.95 goals scored and 2.26 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of 4 matches (75%) of SV Elversberg's sample and 7 of 10 matches (70%) of Union Berlin's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of 4 matches (75%) and 10 of 10 matches (100%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 10.25 per match for SV Elversberg and 13.30 for Union Berlin. On target, the averages are 4.50 and 5.20, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Last 5

Union Berlin

5 matches
LLLDW
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
8
GA
17

Last 4

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Last 10

Union Berlin

10 matches
LLLDWWDLLL
W
2
D
2
L
6
GF
16
GA
28

Last 4

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Last 20

Union Berlin

20 matches
LLLDWWDLLLDLWLLWLDLL
W
4
D
4
L
12
GF
24
GA
48

Season

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Season

Union Berlin

38 matches
LLLDWWDLLLDLWLLWLDLLDDDWWLLWDDLWLDWLLW
W
10
D
10
L
18
GF
48
GA
75

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

SV Elversberg

2.00 · 4 matches

Union Berlin

1.60 · 10 matches

Average goals conceded

SV Elversberg

1.75 · 4 matches

Union Berlin

2.80 · 10 matches

Over 0.5

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Union Berlin

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 1.5

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Union Berlin

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 2.5

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Union Berlin

100% · 10 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Union Berlin

90% · 9 of 10 matches

Both teams scored

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Union Berlin

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Clean sheet

SV Elversberg

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Union Berlin

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Failed to score

SV Elversberg

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Union Berlin

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

SV Elversberg

3.75 · 4 matches

Union Berlin

4.60 · 10 matches

Average against

SV Elversberg

7.25 · 4 matches

Union Berlin

6.50 · 10 matches

Total average

SV Elversberg

11.00 · 4 matches

Union Berlin

11.10 · 10 matches

Over 7.5

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Union Berlin

80% · 8 of 10 matches

Over 8.5

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Union Berlin

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 9.5

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Union Berlin

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 10.5

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Union Berlin

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 11.5

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Union Berlin

50% · 5 of 10 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

SV Elversberg

2.00 · 4 matches

Union Berlin

2.00 · 10 matches

Opponent average

SV Elversberg

1.50 · 4 matches

Union Berlin

1.60 · 10 matches

Total average

SV Elversberg

3.50 · 4 matches

Union Berlin

3.60 · 10 matches

Over 2.5

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Union Berlin

70% · 7 of 10 matches

Over 3.5

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Union Berlin

60% · 6 of 10 matches

Over 4.5

SV Elversberg

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Union Berlin

20% · 2 of 10 matches

Over 5.5

SV Elversberg

0% · 0 of 4 matches

Union Berlin

10% · 1 of 10 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

SV Elversberg

11.50 · 4 matches

Union Berlin

10.20 · 10 matches

Opponent average

SV Elversberg

12.75 · 4 matches

Union Berlin

9.90 · 10 matches

Total average

SV Elversberg

24.25 · 4 matches

Union Berlin

20.10 · 10 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

SV Elversberg

10.25 · 4 matches

Union Berlin

13.30 · 10 matches

Average shots on target

SV Elversberg

4.50 · 4 matches

Union Berlin

5.20 · 10 matches

Average shots conceded

SV Elversberg

21.75 · 4 matches

Union Berlin

14.00 · 10 matches

Average shots on target conceded

SV Elversberg

4.25 · 4 matches

Union Berlin

6.30 · 10 matches

Average xG

SV Elversberg

1.79 · 2 matches

Union Berlin

1.59 · 8 matches

Average xG against

SV Elversberg

2.12 · 2 matches

Union Berlin

1.88 · 8 matches

Home vs away

SV Elversberg at home × Union Berlin away

SV Elversberg at home

SV Elversberg

2 matches
LW
W
1
D
0
L
1
GF
4
GA
4

Union Berlin away

Union Berlin

19 matches
LLWLLLWLLLDDWLWLLWL
W
5
D
2
L
12
GF
18
GA
43
Average goals scored

SV Elversberg at home

2.00 · 2 matches

Union Berlin away

0.95 · 19 matches

Average goals conceded

SV Elversberg at home

2.00 · 2 matches

Union Berlin away

2.26 · 19 matches

Over 0.5

SV Elversberg at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Union Berlin away

100% · 19 of 19 matches

Over 1.5

SV Elversberg at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Union Berlin away

74% · 14 of 19 matches

Over 2.5

SV Elversberg at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Union Berlin away

58% · 11 of 19 matches

Over 3.5

SV Elversberg at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Union Berlin away

53% · 10 of 19 matches

Both teams scored

SV Elversberg at home

100% · 2 of 2 matches

Union Berlin away

47% · 9 of 19 matches

Clean sheet

SV Elversberg at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Union Berlin away

16% · 3 of 19 matches

Failed to score

SV Elversberg at home

0% · 0 of 2 matches

Union Berlin away

37% · 7 of 19 matches

Total corner average

SV Elversberg at home

9.50 · 2 matches

Union Berlin away

10.16 · 19 matches

Over 8.5 corners

SV Elversberg at home

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Union Berlin away

68% · 13 of 19 matches

Total card average

SV Elversberg at home

3.50 · 2 matches

Union Berlin away

3.78 · 18 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

SV Elversberg

M. Krattenmacher

Midfielder

7.21

4 matches · 141 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 8 shots on target

D. Mokwa

Forward

6.93

4 matches · 312 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

L. Petkov

Midfielder

6.83

4 matches · 353 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

William Cole Campbell

Midfielder

6.70

4 matches · 261 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

L. Pinckert

Centre-back

6.61

4 matches · 360 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

N. Kristof

Goalkeeper

7.21

4 matches · 360 min

9 saves · 5 goals conceded

T. Boss

Goalkeeper

0.00

2 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

Union Berlin

T. Skarke

Midfielder

6.70

4 matches · 115 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 5 shots on target

L. Querfeld

Centre-back

6.59

3 matches · 270 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 2 shots on target

J. Juranović

Centre-back

6.50

3 matches · 254 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 2 of 3 shots on target

E. Latte Lath

Forward

6.54

4 matches · 245 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

T. Rothe

Centre-back

5.83

4 matches · 360 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 3 of 4 shots on target

F. Rønnow

Goalkeeper

6.71

3 matches · 270 min

18 saves · 4 goals conceded

M. Raab

Goalkeeper

1.77

3 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 3 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.