Away team to score 1+ goals
81.5%
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- Sample
- 38 matches/team
- Model
- radaronze-v1
Model factors
League average — goals: 3.33
Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.
Home/away strength: 1.61 × 1.96
Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.
Opponent strength: 1484 × 1500
Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.
Recency: 120-day half-life
Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.
Historical stability: 64
Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.
Sample per team: 38 / 38
Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.
Historical coverage: 100.0%
Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.
Expected Goals: 1.53 × 1.52
The xG signal receives 28% of the weight; observed goals receive 72%.
Model expected goals: 1.59 × 1.84
Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.
Signal consensus: 65
Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.
Understand this analysisStructured analysis
Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 81.5%, medium confidence and a sample of 38 matches per team.
League average — goals: 3.33 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.61 × 1.96 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1484 × 1500 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)
No current market price is available for this signal.
The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.