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Bayern München vs SV Elversberg: statistics and analysis

BUNDESLIGA 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 20

· LONDON TIME · Allianz Arena · Referee: not provided

Bayern München

Bayern München

2 · 10 pts · 4 P · 3 W · 1 D · 0 L · GD 12

VSSV Elversberg

SV Elversberg

7 · 7 pts · 4 P · 2 W · 1 D · 1 L · GD 1

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

66.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.49 × 1.09

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.49 × 1.09

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 96.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 66.7%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.33 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 3.49 × 1.09 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1684 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

88.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.49 × 1.09

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.49 × 1.09

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 68.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 88.0%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.33 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 3.49 × 1.09 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1684 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

90.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.49 × 1.09

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.49 × 1.09

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 11.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 90.8%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.33 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 3.49 × 1.09 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1684 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

21.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.49 × 1.09

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.49 × 1.09

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 21.2%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.33 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 3.49 × 1.09 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1684 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

97.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.49 × 1.09

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.49 × 1.09

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 83.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 97.8%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.33 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 3.49 × 1.09 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1684 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

86.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.49 × 1.09

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.49 × 1.09

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 96.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 86.6%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.33 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 3.49 × 1.09 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1684 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

96.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 27.4

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 23.02 × 8.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 31.79

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 78.4

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 96.6%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — shots: 27.4 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 23.02 × 8.77 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1684 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

9.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.49 × 1.09

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.49 × 1.09

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 11.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

12.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.49 × 1.09

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.49 × 1.09

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 68.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

78.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.33

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.49 × 1.09

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.49 × 1.09

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Bayern München recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 3.60 goals scored per match. SV Elversberg's 4-match sample contains 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 2.00 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Bayern München at home with 16 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 19 matches, averaging 4.21 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded. Away from home, SV Elversberg has 1 win, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 2 matches, with 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of 10 matches (60%) of Bayern München's sample and 3 of 4 matches (75%) of SV Elversberg's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 8 of 10 matches (80%) and 3 of 4 matches (75%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 20.40 per match for Bayern München and 10.25 for SV Elversberg. On target, the averages are 8.10 and 4.50, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Bayern München

5 matches
WWDWW
W
4
D
1
L
0
GF
19
GA
3

Last 5

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Last 10

Bayern München

10 matches
WWDWWWDWWW
W
8
D
2
L
0
GF
36
GA
11

Last 4

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Last 20

Bayern München

20 matches
WWDWWWDWWWWWDWWWWWDL
W
15
D
4
L
1
GF
65
GA
24

Last 4

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Season

Bayern München

38 matches
WWDWWWDWWWWWDWWWWWDLWWWWDWWWDWWWWWWWWW
W
31
D
6
L
1
GF
136
GA
38

Season

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Bayern München

3.60 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

2.00 · 4 matches

Average goals conceded

Bayern München

1.10 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

1.75 · 4 matches

Over 0.5

Bayern München

90% · 9 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Over 1.5

Bayern München

80% · 8 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Over 2.5

Bayern München

80% · 8 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Over 3.5

Bayern München

70% · 7 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Both teams scored

Bayern München

60% · 6 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Clean sheet

Bayern München

40% · 4 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Failed to score

Bayern München

10% · 1 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Bayern München

7.80 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

3.75 · 4 matches

Average against

Bayern München

3.40 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

7.25 · 4 matches

Total average

Bayern München

11.20 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

11.00 · 4 matches

Over 7.5

Bayern München

90% · 9 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Over 8.5

Bayern München

80% · 8 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Over 9.5

Bayern München

70% · 7 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Over 10.5

Bayern München

60% · 6 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Over 11.5

Bayern München

40% · 4 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Bayern München

1.33 · 9 matches

SV Elversberg

2.00 · 4 matches

Opponent average

Bayern München

1.78 · 9 matches

SV Elversberg

1.50 · 4 matches

Total average

Bayern München

3.11 · 9 matches

SV Elversberg

3.50 · 4 matches

Over 2.5

Bayern München

67% · 6 of 9 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Over 3.5

Bayern München

44% · 4 of 9 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Over 4.5

Bayern München

11% · 1 of 9 matches

SV Elversberg

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Over 5.5

Bayern München

0% · 0 of 9 matches

SV Elversberg

0% · 0 of 4 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Bayern München

8.20 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

11.50 · 4 matches

Opponent average

Bayern München

8.50 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

12.75 · 4 matches

Total average

Bayern München

16.70 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

24.25 · 4 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Bayern München

20.40 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

10.25 · 4 matches

Average shots on target

Bayern München

8.10 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

4.50 · 4 matches

Average shots conceded

Bayern München

9.90 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

21.75 · 4 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Bayern München

3.80 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

4.25 · 4 matches

Average xG

Bayern München

2.98 · 8 matches

SV Elversberg

1.79 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Bayern München

1.52 · 8 matches

SV Elversberg

2.12 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Bayern München at home × SV Elversberg away

Bayern München at home

Bayern München

19 matches
WWWDWWWWWLWDWWWWWWW
W
16
D
2
L
1
GF
80
GA
20

SV Elversberg away

SV Elversberg

2 matches
DW
W
1
D
1
L
0
GF
4
GA
3
Average goals scored

Bayern München at home

4.21 · 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

2.00 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

Bayern München at home

1.05 · 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

1.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

Bayern München at home

100% · 19 of 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

Bayern München at home

100% · 19 of 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

Bayern München at home

100% · 19 of 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

Bayern München at home

84% · 16 of 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

Bayern München at home

68% · 13 of 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

Bayern München at home

32% · 6 of 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

Bayern München at home

0% · 0 of 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total corner average

Bayern München at home

10.84 · 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

12.50 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Bayern München at home

68% · 13 of 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total card average

Bayern München at home

3.06 · 18 matches

SV Elversberg away

3.50 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Bayern München

M. Olise

Midfielder

7.94

4 matches · 303 min

4 goals · 1 assists · 9 of 16 shots on target

H. Kane

Forward

7.68

4 matches · 296 min

3 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

I. Saibari

Midfielder

7.34

4 matches · 178 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 3 of 8 shots on target

J. Kimmich

Midfielder

7.86

4 matches · 295 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

A. Davies

Centre-back

7.63

4 matches · 272 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

M. Neuer

Goalkeeper

5.54

4 matches · 270 min

6 saves · 1 goals conceded

J. Urbig

Goalkeeper

3.35

2 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

SV Elversberg

M. Krattenmacher

Midfielder

7.21

4 matches · 141 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 8 shots on target

D. Mokwa

Forward

6.93

4 matches · 312 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

L. Petkov

Midfielder

6.83

4 matches · 353 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

William Cole Campbell

Midfielder

6.70

4 matches · 261 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

L. Pinckert

Centre-back

6.61

4 matches · 360 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

N. Kristof

Goalkeeper

7.21

4 matches · 360 min

9 saves · 5 goals conceded

T. Boss

Goalkeeper

0.00

2 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

SV Elversberg 1 × 2 Bayern München1575166
Average goals
3.00 · 1 match
Both teams scored
100% · 1 of 1 matches
Over 2.5
100% · 1 of 1 matches

H2H corners: 12.00 · 1 match

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.