RadarOnze

SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg: statistics and analysis

BUNDESLIGA 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 13

· LONDON TIME · Home Deluxe Arena · Referee: not provided

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

75.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.44 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.44 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 76.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 75.2%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.44 × 1.47 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1491 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

74.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.44 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.44 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 90

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 74.7%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.44 × 1.47 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1491 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

62.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.44 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.44 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 79.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 62.0%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.44 × 1.47 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1491 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

63.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.44 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.44 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 63.3%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.44 × 1.47 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1491 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

92.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.44 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.44 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 77.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 92.8%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.44 × 1.47 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1491 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

38.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.44 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.44 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 51.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 38.5%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.44 × 1.47 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1491 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

94.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 27.67

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 16.26 × 13.68

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 29.95

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 80.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 94.9%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — shots: 27.67 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 16.26 × 13.68 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1491 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

38.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.44 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.44 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 79.5

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

25.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.44 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.44 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 90

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

36.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.44 × 1.47

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1491 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 6 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.44 × 1.47

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 88.9

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 6 recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 recorded 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats and averaged 0.67 goals scored per match. SV Elversberg's 4-match sample contains 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 2.00 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows SC Paderborn 07 at home with 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 3 matches, averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded. Away from home, SV Elversberg has 1 win, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 2 matches, with 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 2 of 6 matches (33%) of SC Paderborn 07's sample and 3 of 4 matches (75%) of SV Elversberg's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 2 of 6 matches (33%) and 3 of 4 matches (75%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 14.67 per match for SC Paderborn 07 and 10.25 for SV Elversberg. On target, the averages are 3.17 and 4.50, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

SC Paderborn 07

5 matches
WLLDD
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
6

Last 5

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Last 6

SC Paderborn 07

6 matches
WLLDDD
W
1
D
3
L
2
GF
4
GA
6

Last 4

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Last 6

SC Paderborn 07

6 matches
WLLDDD
W
1
D
3
L
2
GF
4
GA
6

Last 4

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Season

SC Paderborn 07

6 matches
WLLDDD
W
1
D
3
L
2
GF
4
GA
6

Season

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

SC Paderborn 07

0.67 · 6 matches

SV Elversberg

2.00 · 4 matches

Average goals conceded

SC Paderborn 07

1.00 · 6 matches

SV Elversberg

1.75 · 4 matches

Over 0.5

SC Paderborn 07

67% · 4 of 6 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Over 1.5

SC Paderborn 07

50% · 3 of 6 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Over 2.5

SC Paderborn 07

33% · 2 of 6 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Over 3.5

SC Paderborn 07

17% · 1 of 6 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Both teams scored

SC Paderborn 07

33% · 2 of 6 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Clean sheet

SC Paderborn 07

33% · 2 of 6 matches

SV Elversberg

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Failed to score

SC Paderborn 07

67% · 4 of 6 matches

SV Elversberg

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

SC Paderborn 07

6.00 · 6 matches

SV Elversberg

3.75 · 4 matches

Average against

SC Paderborn 07

5.50 · 6 matches

SV Elversberg

7.25 · 4 matches

Total average

SC Paderborn 07

11.50 · 6 matches

SV Elversberg

11.00 · 4 matches

Over 7.5

SC Paderborn 07

83% · 5 of 6 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Over 8.5

SC Paderborn 07

83% · 5 of 6 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Over 9.5

SC Paderborn 07

67% · 4 of 6 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Over 10.5

SC Paderborn 07

50% · 3 of 6 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Over 11.5

SC Paderborn 07

33% · 2 of 6 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

SC Paderborn 07

2.33 · 6 matches

SV Elversberg

2.00 · 4 matches

Opponent average

SC Paderborn 07

2.33 · 6 matches

SV Elversberg

1.50 · 4 matches

Total average

SC Paderborn 07

4.67 · 6 matches

SV Elversberg

3.50 · 4 matches

Over 2.5

SC Paderborn 07

67% · 4 of 6 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Over 3.5

SC Paderborn 07

50% · 3 of 6 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Over 4.5

SC Paderborn 07

50% · 3 of 6 matches

SV Elversberg

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Over 5.5

SC Paderborn 07

50% · 3 of 6 matches

SV Elversberg

0% · 0 of 4 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

SC Paderborn 07

11.17 · 6 matches

SV Elversberg

11.50 · 4 matches

Opponent average

SC Paderborn 07

10.67 · 6 matches

SV Elversberg

12.75 · 4 matches

Total average

SC Paderborn 07

21.83 · 6 matches

SV Elversberg

24.25 · 4 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

SC Paderborn 07

14.67 · 6 matches

SV Elversberg

10.25 · 4 matches

Average shots on target

SC Paderborn 07

3.17 · 6 matches

SV Elversberg

4.50 · 4 matches

Average shots conceded

SC Paderborn 07

16.33 · 6 matches

SV Elversberg

21.75 · 4 matches

Average shots on target conceded

SC Paderborn 07

4.67 · 6 matches

SV Elversberg

4.25 · 4 matches

Average xG

SC Paderborn 07

0.75 · 2 matches

SV Elversberg

1.79 · 2 matches

Average xG against

SC Paderborn 07

1.23 · 2 matches

SV Elversberg

2.12 · 2 matches

Home vs away

SC Paderborn 07 at home × SV Elversberg away

SC Paderborn 07 at home

SC Paderborn 07

3 matches
WLD
W
1
D
1
L
1
GF
4
GA
3

SV Elversberg away

SV Elversberg

2 matches
DW
W
1
D
1
L
0
GF
4
GA
3
Average goals scored

SC Paderborn 07 at home

1.33 · 3 matches

SV Elversberg away

2.00 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

SC Paderborn 07 at home

1.00 · 3 matches

SV Elversberg away

1.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

SC Paderborn 07 at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

SC Paderborn 07 at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

SC Paderborn 07 at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

SC Paderborn 07 at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

SC Paderborn 07 at home

67% · 2 of 3 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

SC Paderborn 07 at home

0% · 0 of 3 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

SC Paderborn 07 at home

33% · 1 of 3 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total corner average

SC Paderborn 07 at home

13.67 · 3 matches

SV Elversberg away

12.50 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

SC Paderborn 07 at home

100% · 3 of 3 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total card average

SC Paderborn 07 at home

5.67 · 3 matches

SV Elversberg away

3.50 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

SC Paderborn 07

S. Castañeda

Midfielder

7.10

4 matches · 360 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

L. Curda

Midfielder

7.01

4 matches · 337 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

S. Marino

Forward

6.83

4 matches · 215 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

S. Tigges

Forward

6.79

4 matches · 136 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 7 shots on target

Jonah Benedict Sticker

Midfielder

5.11

4 matches · 50 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

N. Noll

Goalkeeper

7.43

4 matches · 360 min

14 saves · 1 goals conceded

M. Schubert

Goalkeeper

0.00

2 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

SV Elversberg

M. Krattenmacher

Midfielder

7.21

4 matches · 141 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 8 shots on target

D. Mokwa

Forward

6.93

4 matches · 312 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

L. Petkov

Midfielder

6.83

4 matches · 353 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

William Cole Campbell

Midfielder

6.70

4 matches · 261 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

L. Pinckert

Centre-back

6.61

4 matches · 360 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

N. Kristof

Goalkeeper

7.21

4 matches · 360 min

9 saves · 5 goals conceded

T. Boss

Goalkeeper

0.00

2 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.