RadarOnze

Bayern München vs SC Paderborn 07: statistics and analysis

BUNDESLIGA 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 12

· LONDON TIME · Allianz Arena · Referee: not provided

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

50.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.10 × 0.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1491

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 6

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.10 × 0.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 52.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 50.2%, low confidence and a sample of 6 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 3.10 × 0.77 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1684 × 1491 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

87.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.10 × 0.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1491

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 6

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.10 × 0.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 63.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 87.7%, low confidence and a sample of 6 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 3.10 × 0.77 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1684 × 1491 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

92.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.10 × 0.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1491

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 6

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.10 × 0.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 14.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 92.3%, low confidence and a sample of 6 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 3.10 × 0.77 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1684 × 1491 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

20.1%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.10 × 0.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1491

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 6

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.10 × 0.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 20.1%, low confidence and a sample of 6 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 3.10 × 0.77 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1684 × 1491 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.10 × 0.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1491

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 6

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.10 × 0.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 81.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.5%, low confidence and a sample of 6 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 3.10 × 0.77 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1684 × 1491 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

82.6%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.10 × 0.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1491

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 6

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.10 × 0.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 85.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 82.6%, low confidence and a sample of 6 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 3.10 × 0.77 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1684 × 1491 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

96.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 27.7

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 22.36 × 9.04

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1491

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 6

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 31.40

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 76.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 96.2%, low confidence and a sample of 6 matches per team.

League average — shots: 27.7 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 22.36 × 9.04 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1684 × 1491 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

7.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.10 × 0.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1491

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 6

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.10 × 0.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 14.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

12.3%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.10 × 0.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1491

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 6

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.10 × 0.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 63.2

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

79.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
6 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 3.10 × 0.77

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1684 × 1491

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 6

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 3.10 × 0.77

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 0

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, Bayern München recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats and averaged 3.60 goals scored per match. SC Paderborn 07's 6-match sample contains 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 0.67 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows Bayern München at home with 16 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 19 matches, averaging 4.21 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded. Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 has 0 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of 10 matches (60%) of Bayern München's sample and 2 of 6 matches (33%) of SC Paderborn 07's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 8 of 10 matches (80%) and 2 of 6 matches (33%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 20.40 per match for Bayern München and 14.67 for SC Paderborn 07. On target, the averages are 8.10 and 3.17, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

Bayern München

5 matches
WWDWW
W
4
D
1
L
0
GF
19
GA
3

Last 5

SC Paderborn 07

5 matches
WLLDD
W
1
D
2
L
2
GF
4
GA
6

Last 10

Bayern München

10 matches
WWDWWWDWWW
W
8
D
2
L
0
GF
36
GA
11

Last 6

SC Paderborn 07

6 matches
WLLDDD
W
1
D
3
L
2
GF
4
GA
6

Last 20

Bayern München

20 matches
WWDWWWDWWWWWDWWWWWDL
W
15
D
4
L
1
GF
65
GA
24

Last 6

SC Paderborn 07

6 matches
WLLDDD
W
1
D
3
L
2
GF
4
GA
6

Season

Bayern München

38 matches
WWDWWWDWWWWWDWWWWWDLWWWWDWWWDWWWWWWWWW
W
31
D
6
L
1
GF
136
GA
38

Season

SC Paderborn 07

6 matches
WLLDDD
W
1
D
3
L
2
GF
4
GA
6

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

Bayern München

3.60 · 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

0.67 · 6 matches

Average goals conceded

Bayern München

1.10 · 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

1.00 · 6 matches

Over 0.5

Bayern München

90% · 9 of 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Over 1.5

Bayern München

80% · 8 of 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Over 2.5

Bayern München

80% · 8 of 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Over 3.5

Bayern München

70% · 7 of 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

17% · 1 of 6 matches

Both teams scored

Bayern München

60% · 6 of 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Clean sheet

Bayern München

40% · 4 of 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Failed to score

Bayern München

10% · 1 of 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

Bayern München

7.80 · 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

6.00 · 6 matches

Average against

Bayern München

3.40 · 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

5.50 · 6 matches

Total average

Bayern München

11.20 · 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

11.50 · 6 matches

Over 7.5

Bayern München

90% · 9 of 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

83% · 5 of 6 matches

Over 8.5

Bayern München

80% · 8 of 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

83% · 5 of 6 matches

Over 9.5

Bayern München

70% · 7 of 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Over 10.5

Bayern München

60% · 6 of 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Over 11.5

Bayern München

40% · 4 of 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

33% · 2 of 6 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

Bayern München

1.33 · 9 matches

SC Paderborn 07

2.33 · 6 matches

Opponent average

Bayern München

1.78 · 9 matches

SC Paderborn 07

2.33 · 6 matches

Total average

Bayern München

3.11 · 9 matches

SC Paderborn 07

4.67 · 6 matches

Over 2.5

Bayern München

67% · 6 of 9 matches

SC Paderborn 07

67% · 4 of 6 matches

Over 3.5

Bayern München

44% · 4 of 9 matches

SC Paderborn 07

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Over 4.5

Bayern München

11% · 1 of 9 matches

SC Paderborn 07

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Over 5.5

Bayern München

0% · 0 of 9 matches

SC Paderborn 07

50% · 3 of 6 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

Bayern München

8.20 · 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

11.17 · 6 matches

Opponent average

Bayern München

8.50 · 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

10.67 · 6 matches

Total average

Bayern München

16.70 · 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

21.83 · 6 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

Bayern München

20.40 · 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

14.67 · 6 matches

Average shots on target

Bayern München

8.10 · 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

3.17 · 6 matches

Average shots conceded

Bayern München

9.90 · 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

16.33 · 6 matches

Average shots on target conceded

Bayern München

3.80 · 10 matches

SC Paderborn 07

4.67 · 6 matches

Average xG

Bayern München

2.98 · 8 matches

SC Paderborn 07

0.75 · 2 matches

Average xG against

Bayern München

1.52 · 8 matches

SC Paderborn 07

1.23 · 2 matches

Home vs away

Bayern München at home × SC Paderborn 07 away

Bayern München at home

Bayern München

19 matches
WWWDWWWWWLWDWWWWWWW
W
16
D
2
L
1
GF
80
GA
20

SC Paderborn 07 away

SC Paderborn 07

3 matches
LDD
W
0
D
2
L
1
GF
0
GA
3
Average goals scored

Bayern München at home

4.21 · 19 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away

0.00 · 3 matches

Average goals conceded

Bayern München at home

1.05 · 19 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away

1.00 · 3 matches

Over 0.5

Bayern München at home

100% · 19 of 19 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 1.5

Bayern München at home

100% · 19 of 19 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 2.5

Bayern München at home

100% · 19 of 19 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away

33% · 1 of 3 matches

Over 3.5

Bayern München at home

84% · 16 of 19 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Both teams scored

Bayern München at home

68% · 13 of 19 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away

0% · 0 of 3 matches

Clean sheet

Bayern München at home

32% · 6 of 19 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Failed to score

Bayern München at home

0% · 0 of 19 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away

100% · 3 of 3 matches

Total corner average

Bayern München at home

10.84 · 19 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away

9.33 · 3 matches

Over 8.5 corners

Bayern München at home

68% · 13 of 19 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away

67% · 2 of 3 matches

Total card average

Bayern München at home

3.06 · 18 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away

3.67 · 3 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

Bayern München

M. Olise

Midfielder

7.94

4 matches · 303 min

4 goals · 1 assists · 9 of 16 shots on target

H. Kane

Forward

7.68

4 matches · 296 min

3 goals · 1 assists · 5 of 13 shots on target

I. Saibari

Midfielder

7.34

4 matches · 178 min

1 goals · 2 assists · 3 of 8 shots on target

J. Kimmich

Midfielder

7.86

4 matches · 295 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 1 shots on target

A. Davies

Centre-back

7.63

4 matches · 272 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 0 of 2 shots on target

M. Neuer

Goalkeeper

5.54

4 matches · 270 min

6 saves · 1 goals conceded

J. Urbig

Goalkeeper

3.35

2 matches · 90 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

SC Paderborn 07

S. Castañeda

Midfielder

7.10

4 matches · 360 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 5 shots on target

L. Curda

Midfielder

7.01

4 matches · 337 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 4 shots on target

S. Marino

Forward

6.83

4 matches · 215 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

S. Tigges

Forward

6.79

4 matches · 136 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 7 shots on target

Jonah Benedict Sticker

Midfielder

5.11

4 matches · 50 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 0 shots on target

N. Noll

Goalkeeper

7.43

4 matches · 360 min

14 saves · 1 goals conceded

M. Schubert

Goalkeeper

0.00

2 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

No strong convergence was identified from the available samples.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.