RadarOnze

1. FC Köln vs SV Elversberg: statistics and analysis

BUNDESLIGA 2026/27 · PRE-MATCH ANALYSIS

Round 11

· LONDON TIME · RheinEnergieStadion · Referee: not provided

Statistical engine · radaronze-v1

RadarOnze analysis

Probabilities calculated in advance. The explanatory layer organises existing factors and does not change the model’s numbers.

View in the Betting Centre

Away team to score 1+ goals

83.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1429 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 48.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Away team to score 1+ goals has a model probability of 83.7%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.08 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1429 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 12

78.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1429 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 79.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 12 has a model probability of 78.2%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.08 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1429 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance 1X

49.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1429 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 29.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance 1X has a model probability of 49.8%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.08 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1429 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Double chance X2

72.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1429 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 50.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Double chance X2 has a model probability of 72.0%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.08 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1429 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 0.5 goals

96.7%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1429 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 93.6

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 0.5 goals has a model probability of 96.7%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.08 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1429 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Home team to score 2+ goals

41.5%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1429 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Signal consensus: 66

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Home team to score 2+ goals has a model probability of 41.5%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — goals: 3.37 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.08 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1429 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Over 20.5 shots

93.9%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — shots: 27.73

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 15.37 × 13.44

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1429 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 85.3

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Model expected shots: 28.81

    Count model with home/away adjustment, team strength and empirical smoothing.

  • Signal consensus: 91.8

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Understand this analysisStructured analysis

Over 20.5 shots has a model probability of 93.9%, low confidence and a sample of 4 matches per team.

League average — shots: 27.73 (Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.) Home/away strength: 15.37 × 13.44 (Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.) Opponent strength: 1429 × 1514 (Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.)

No current market price is available for this signal.

The explanation organises results that have already been calculated; it does not change probabilities, odds, edge, EV, confidence or value classification.

Result probabilities — 1X2Complementary statistical view. It does not take part in top signals or tickets.

Away win

50.2%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1429 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 29.7

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Draw

21.8%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1429 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 79.3

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

Home win

28.0%

low
View full analysis
Sample
4 matches/team
Model
radaronze-v1

Model factors

  • League average — goals: 3.37

    Weighted average using only matches played before the fixture.

  • Home/away strength: 1.50 × 2.08

    Separate home and away expectations, shrunk towards the overall average.

  • Opponent strength: 1429 × 1514

    Chronological Elo adjustment with no future matches used.

  • Recency: 120-day half-life

    Exponential weighting with a 0.2 floor; older matches never disappear completely.

  • Historical stability: 64.4

    Index derived from the dispersion of previous outcomes for this market.

  • Sample per team: 38 / 4

    Valid home-team and away-team matches available before kick-off.

  • Historical coverage: 100.0%

    Share of previous matches with complete data for this market.

  • Expected Goals: not used

    Coverage or sample was insufficient before this fixture.

  • Model expected goals: 1.50 × 2.08

    Parameters from the independent Poisson model for the home and away teams.

  • Score matrix: 0–10 goals per team

    The 1X2 probabilities are normalised to add up to exactly 100%.

  • Signal consensus: 50.1

    Agreement between the parametric model and the smoothed empirical frequency.

18+ · Statistical estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet responsibly.

Data interpretation

RadarOnze analysis

An original, deterministic reading of the real samples shown on this page.

Across 10 recent matches, 1. FC Köln recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats and averaged 1.50 goals scored per match. SV Elversberg's 4-match sample contains 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 2.00 goals scored per match.

The venue split shows 1. FC Köln at home with 6 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats in 19 matches, averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.74 goals conceded. Away from home, SV Elversberg has 1 win, 1 draw and 0 defeats in 2 matches, with 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded.

Both teams scored in 10 of 10 matches (100%) of 1. FC Köln's sample and 3 of 4 matches (75%) of SV Elversberg's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 8 of 10 matches (80%) and 3 of 4 matches (75%), respectively.

Shot volume separates the sides at 16.30 per match for 1. FC Köln and 10.25 for SV Elversberg. On target, the averages are 5.20 and 4.50, respectively.

Historical frequencies describe the available sample; they are not a promise or certainty about a future result.

Form

Recent form and season

Last 5

1. FC Köln

5 matches
LDLWL
W
1
D
1
L
3
GF
7
GA
14

Last 5

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Last 10

1. FC Köln

10 matches
LDLWLLDLDW
W
2
D
3
L
5
GF
15
GA
23

Last 4

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Last 20

1. FC Köln

20 matches
LDLWLLDLDWDDDLLDLLWL
W
3
D
7
L
10
GF
28
GA
42

Last 4

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Season

1. FC Köln

38 matches
LDLWLLDLDWDDDLLDLLWLWLDLLDDLLWLDWLLDWW
W
8
D
12
L
18
GF
55
GA
72

Season

SV Elversberg

4 matches
DLWW
W
2
D
1
L
1
GF
8
GA
7

Goals

Frequencies across the last 10

Average goals scored

1. FC Köln

1.50 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

2.00 · 4 matches

Average goals conceded

1. FC Köln

2.30 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

1.75 · 4 matches

Over 0.5

1. FC Köln

100% · 10 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Over 1.5

1. FC Köln

100% · 10 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Over 2.5

1. FC Köln

80% · 8 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Over 3.5

1. FC Köln

60% · 6 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Both teams scored

1. FC Köln

100% · 10 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Clean sheet

1. FC Köln

0% · 0 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Failed to score

1. FC Köln

0% · 0 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Corners

Volume and observed lines

Average for

1. FC Köln

5.80 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

3.75 · 4 matches

Average against

1. FC Köln

5.40 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

7.25 · 4 matches

Total average

1. FC Köln

11.20 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

11.00 · 4 matches

Over 7.5

1. FC Köln

80% · 8 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Over 8.5

1. FC Köln

70% · 7 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Over 9.5

1. FC Köln

70% · 7 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Over 10.5

1. FC Köln

50% · 5 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Over 11.5

1. FC Köln

50% · 5 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Cards

Averages and frequencies

Team average

1. FC Köln

1.90 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

2.00 · 4 matches

Opponent average

1. FC Köln

1.90 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

1.50 · 4 matches

Total average

1. FC Köln

3.80 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

3.50 · 4 matches

Over 2.5

1. FC Köln

80% · 8 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

75% · 3 of 4 matches

Over 3.5

1. FC Köln

60% · 6 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

50% · 2 of 4 matches

Over 4.5

1. FC Köln

30% · 3 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

25% · 1 of 4 matches

Over 5.5

1. FC Köln

10% · 1 of 10 matches

SV Elversberg

0% · 0 of 4 matches

Fouls

Match intensity

Committed average

1. FC Köln

9.40 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

11.50 · 4 matches

Opponent average

1. FC Köln

8.20 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

12.75 · 4 matches

Total average

1. FC Köln

17.60 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

24.25 · 4 matches

Shots

Production and concessions

Average shots

1. FC Köln

16.30 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

10.25 · 4 matches

Average shots on target

1. FC Köln

5.20 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

4.50 · 4 matches

Average shots conceded

1. FC Köln

13.40 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

21.75 · 4 matches

Average shots on target conceded

1. FC Köln

5.00 · 10 matches

SV Elversberg

4.25 · 4 matches

Average xG

1. FC Köln

1.94 · 7 matches

SV Elversberg

1.79 · 2 matches

Average xG against

1. FC Köln

1.68 · 7 matches

SV Elversberg

2.12 · 2 matches

Home vs away

1. FC Köln at home × SV Elversberg away

1. FC Köln at home

1. FC Köln

19 matches
DWLLWDLDLWWLLDLWDLW
W
6
D
5
L
8
GF
34
GA
33

SV Elversberg away

SV Elversberg

2 matches
DW
W
1
D
1
L
0
GF
4
GA
3
Average goals scored

1. FC Köln at home

1.79 · 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

2.00 · 2 matches

Average goals conceded

1. FC Köln at home

1.74 · 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

1.50 · 2 matches

Over 0.5

1. FC Köln at home

100% · 19 of 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 1.5

1. FC Köln at home

89% · 17 of 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 2.5

1. FC Köln at home

74% · 14 of 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Over 3.5

1. FC Köln at home

47% · 9 of 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Both teams scored

1. FC Köln at home

89% · 17 of 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Clean sheet

1. FC Köln at home

5% · 1 of 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Failed to score

1. FC Köln at home

5% · 1 of 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total corner average

1. FC Köln at home

9.89 · 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

12.50 · 2 matches

Over 8.5 corners

1. FC Köln at home

58% · 11 of 19 matches

SV Elversberg away

50% · 1 of 2 matches

Total card average

1. FC Köln at home

4.88 · 17 matches

SV Elversberg away

3.50 · 2 matches

Players and goalkeepers

Pre-match highlights

1. FC Köln

T. Dallinga

Forward

7.21

3 matches · 153 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 4 of 9 shots on target

E. Skhiri

Midfielder

6.95

4 matches · 250 min

0 goals · 2 assists · 1 of 3 shots on target

L. Maina

Midfielder

6.94

4 matches · 246 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 1 of 4 shots on target

R. Ache

Forward

6.72

4 matches · 192 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 1 of 8 shots on target

S. El Mala

Midfielder

6.64

3 matches · 171 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 8 shots on target

M. Schwäbe

Goalkeeper

7.02

4 matches · 360 min

15 saves · 2 goals conceded

R. Zieler

Goalkeeper

0.00

3 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

SV Elversberg

M. Krattenmacher

Midfielder

7.21

4 matches · 141 min

3 goals · 0 assists · 5 of 8 shots on target

D. Mokwa

Forward

6.93

4 matches · 312 min

2 goals · 0 assists · 2 of 4 shots on target

L. Petkov

Midfielder

6.83

4 matches · 353 min

1 goals · 1 assists · 4 of 6 shots on target

William Cole Campbell

Midfielder

6.70

4 matches · 261 min

1 goals · 0 assists · 3 of 6 shots on target

L. Pinckert

Centre-back

6.61

4 matches · 360 min

0 goals · 1 assists · 0 of 1 shots on target

N. Kristof

Goalkeeper

7.21

4 matches · 360 min

9 saves · 5 goals conceded

T. Boss

Goalkeeper

0.00

2 matches · 0 min

0 saves · 0 goals conceded

H2H

Recent meetings

Insufficient data

Combined view

Data convergences

  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the home team scoring.
  • Both scopes show a high frequency of the away team scoring.
  • Recent histories converge towards matches with three or more goals.

Descriptive analysis based exclusively on available frequencies.